2026 World Baseball Classic Predictions: Dominican Republic Spoils Team USA's Party

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The 2026 World Baseball Classic kicks off this week with games in Japan, Puerto Rico, and throughout the United States.

Team USA is the betting favorite to win the tournament, but the competition will be fierce, particularly from Japan and the Dominican Republic.

We're looking into our crystal ball to bring out the best World Baseball Classic picks and predictions below for the tournament champion and Most Valuable Player before the final on Wednesday, March 17. 

2026 World Baseball Classic predictions

Team
United States	-105
Japan	+380
Dominican Republic	+460
Venezuela	+850
Puerto Rico	+1900
Mexico	+1900
Canada	+6000
Italy	+7500
Korea	+8000
Cuba	+10000
Netherlands	+10000
Colombia	+10000

World Baseball Classic outright winner prediction 

Pick: Dominican Republic (+460 at FanDuel)

The United States is listed at -110, which I can't get behind. For one, the Americans have won the WBC just once in five tournaments dating back to 2006. You'd think they'd dominate America's Pastime on the international stage, but that hasn't been the case. In fact, they've reached the finals only twice.

In theory, having a pitcher like Tarik Skubal on the roster gives the USA a major advantage. However, the two-time American League Cy Young winner will only pitch in one game during the group stage before returning to spring training.

Joe Ryan is injured, Clayton Kershaw is retired from MLB, and Nolan McLean is a rookie (with admitted upside). Obviously, Paul Skenes and Logan Webb present enough talent from a starter's perspective to get the job done, but the value lies elsewhere.

Japan (+380) is a logical alternative, having won three WBC tournaments, but I like the odds on the Dominican Republic at +460. The Dominicans won it all in 2013 (with obviously a completely different roster) and haven't reached the finals again since. And though the pitching staff is a bit dicey, anchored by starters Cristopher Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, and Luis Severino, the offense is unreal.

Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, and Fernando Tatis Jr. will likely make up the starting outfield, with Oneil Cruz on the bench. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Junior Caminero, and Geraldo Perdomo are among the options on the infield.

That is not necessarily better than the lineup Team USA will trot out there, but it's comparable. And that makes it worth the risk when considering the price discrepancy for Albert Pujols' squad.

World Baseball Classic MVP prediction

Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. (+4000 at FanDuel)

The tournament MVP has come from the winning nation all five times, so if we're eyeing the Dominican Republic to take home the trophy, we're looking for someone on the roster to pace the field.

Pitchers have fared well in the tournament, winning four MVP awards (Shohei Ohtani did it as a pitcher/designated hitter in 2023). The one time a pitcher didn't win was when the D.R. took it home in 2013.

Again, I'm aware that the rosters are different, but I'm more bullish on the offense than the pitching staff to begin with. And while Juan Soto is certainly tempting at +2700, I like Fernando Tatis Jr. at much longer odds.

For his career, Tatis is a hot starter, batting .283 with 29 home runs in 116 regular-season games between March and April. Compare that to teammate Julio Rodriguez (+3500), who has hit .229 with 10 homers in 107 games from that same split.

Tatis will hit near the top of the lineup and can be counted on to put his wheels to good use when reaching base. A five-tool threat, I like the number on him to win Most Valuable Player.

WBC pool winner predictions

Pool A 

Pick: Canada (+330 at FanDuel)

This should have been a gimme for Puerto Rico, but projected team captain Francisco Lindor and All-Star infielder Carlos Correa will not participate in the tournament. Neither player was able to get insurance, and so they won't play.

Puerto Rico could still win Pool A, but it's a much less fearsome roster. Picking an alternative ultimately comes down to Canada or Cuba, and I'll take the side with more major-league talent. Headlined by hitters Josh Naylor and Tyler O'Neill, and pitchers Jameson Taillon and Michael Soroka, this may be an uphill battle, but there is value in the number with P.R. short-handed.

Pool B

Pick: USA (-650 at FanDuel)

We'll go with chalk the rest of the way. Even with Joe Ryan hurt and Tarik Skubal limited, this is very nearly an All-Star roster. Mexico has some intriguing pieces, namely Randy Arozarena, Jarren Duran, and Taj Bradley, but it would be a pretty shocking upset.

Pool C

Pick: Japan (-450 at FanDuel)

Shohei Ohtani is back for more, but he's not the only big-ticket Japanese player in the field. New-to-MLB players like Kazuma Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami will round out the top of the batting order alongside Ohtani and Seiya Suzuki, while the rotation is headlined by World Series hero Yoshinobu Yamamoto and veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi, among others. Korea is closest on the board, but it won't compete with Samurai Japan.

Pool D

Pick: Dominican Republic (-175 at FanDuel)

There is a case to be made for Venezuela, but that would torpedo our best bet above, so we'll stick with the Dominican Republic. This may be the most competitive pool, as Ronald Acuna Jr., Jackson Chourio, & Co. will be tough to beat. However, I prefer the Dominican pitching staff and think Jose Altuve's absence will hurt the Venezuelans.

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