How strength of 2026 NFL draft class lines up with Cowboys needs

If you had the choice in the 2026 NFL draft, would you rather pick the third-best edge rusher, the second-best cornerback or linebacker, or the best safety?

This may sound like a trick question, but I assure you it is not: that may be a very real question the Cowboys have to ask themselves in the first round of the NFL draft this year.

Of course, your answer here probably depends on the specific player grades you have assigned to each player, but assuming two players at different positions have the exact same grade and also meet an equally big need, which player do you pick? In a roundabout way, this question brings us to the concept of positional value. Is a defensive end more valuable than a linebacker? Is the second-best cornerback better than the top safety?

If you want the perceived best quarterback in a draft class, you’ll have to invest the number one pick – at least that’s what teams have done in four of the last five drafts, and is also what’s going to happen this year. If you average the draft positions of the first QBs taken in each of the last five drafts, you’ll get an average draft position for the top QB of 4.8. And if you exclude 2022 20th-overall pick Kenny Pickett, that number climbs to a cool 1.0 (2021: Trevor Lawrence #1, 2023: Bryce Young #1, 2024: Caleb Williams #1, 2025: Cameron Ward #1).

And that’s an exercise we can repeat for the top four players at each position to find out where the top four prospects at each position were picked on average – which is exactly what I did below. Here’s how those positional rankings shake out over the last five drafts:

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Draft positions 2021-2025
Position	1st player	2nd player	3rd player	4th player
Tackle	6	9	11	20
Edge Rusher	7	11	15	21
Wide Receiver	9	12	15	22
Cornerback	8	15	24	32
Quarterback	5	21	27	32
Defensive Line	16	27	37	42
Interior OL	21	32	39	50
Running Back	24	33	54	75
Tight End	21	46	64	75
Inside Linebacker	26	43	61	74
Safety	34	42	53	70
Legend	Picks 1-16	Picks 17-32	Picks 33-64	Picks > 64

The cascading color scheme in the table visualizes nicely which positions have received a lot of draft capital over the last five years, and which have received less.

The blue cells mark the premium tier of positions that have been the focus of a lot of draft capital over the last five years, and where the 12th overall pick could still get the second- or third-best player at a given position. Offensive tackles, edge rushers, wide receivers, corners and the occasional defensive lineman were the prime positions in terms of allocated draft capital over the last five years – as was QB, but we saw the quirks of that position earlier. Edge rushers and cornerbacks line up nicely with the Cowboys needs this year.

The green cells mark the second-tier positions where the Cowboys could still conceivably get the top player at a second-tier position, or at least have access to a top four player from the premium tier. Inside linebacker and safeties match up with the Cowboys needs, and they have not been the focus of a lot of draft capital over the last five years

The yellow cells mark a third tier of prospects ranked outside the first round, red marks all players outside the second round.

Of course, just because you can average out a set of data over five years doesn’t mean that the 2026 draft class will turn out anything like the average. The talent level (or its absence) in a given year has a huge impact on the number of players from any position drafted in the top rounds, and looking at these averages can easily give a false sense of accuracy. But the numbers do give you a directional indication of when, say, the fourth defensive end is likely to be off the board.

And while we don’t know how the draft will eventually play out, the draft community already has a pretty good idea of how players and positions are ranked this year, and you can check that out on the Consensus Big Board at NFLmockdraftdatabase.com. Which is exactly what I did, and then repeated the exercise I did above for the 2021-2025 draft results with the 2026 big board rankings. Here’s what that looks like:

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Draft positions 2021-2025						Big Board 2026
Position	1st player	2nd player	3rd player	4th player		1st player	2nd player	3rd player	4th player
Tackle	6	9	11	20		4	6	21	23
Edge Rusher	7	11	15	21		3	5	15	18
Wide Receiver	9	12	15	22		7	10	13	20
Cornerback	8	15	24	32		11	14	22	33
Quarterback	5	21	27	32		1	31	72	109
Defensive Line	16	27	37	42		17	26	29	35
Interior OL	21	32	39	50		16	40	45	64
Running Back	24	33	54	75		9	53	74	78
Tight End	21	46	64	75		19	60	75	85
Inside Linebacker	26	43	61	74		2	12	28	42
Safety	34	42	53	70		8	32	36	61
Legend	Picks 1-16	Picks 17-32	Picks 33-64	Picks > 64

You’ll immediately see that the top of the table hasn’t changed very much for the 2026 draft class. Depth at tackle, edge, wide receiver, corner, and even the defensive line are very comparable to the last five years, and again match up well with the Cowboys needs at corner or edge. And count your blessings the Cowboys don’t need to draft a quarterback.

Where it gets very interesting is at the bottom of the table, where safety and linebacker surge up the draft board. Two positions that have traditionally been borderline first-round positions suddenly surge up into the premium tier of positions.

Take safety Caleb Downs. For the last five years the best safety in each draft class was drafted 34th. For the sake of argument, let’s assume draft position = draft grade. You now have a player in Downs who is graded almost a full round higher than anything you’ve seen in the last five years, whereas at other positions – the third edge rusher is unchanged at No. 15, the second corner moves from #15 to #14, even the third and fourth corners – hardly move at all.

And what’s true for safety is also true for linebacker, where you’re seeing grades unlike anything over the last five years.

In the end, the Cowboys are in a good place any way you look at it, because the strengths of this draft class – edge, corner, linebacker, and safety – line up exceedingly well with the Cowboys needs, at both the No. 12 and No. 20 spots.

Which brings us back to our question from the top. If, by chance, S Caleb Downs or LB Sonny Styles, with what looks like generational grades for their position, drop to the Cowboys at #12, do you take them over the second-ranked corner or the third-ranked edge rusher?